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Energy [r]evolution

ABSTRACT

Two scenarios up to the year 2050 are outlined in this report. The Reference Scenario is based on the reference scenario published by the International Energy Agency in World Energy Outlook 2006, extrapolated forward from 2030 have been calculated using the MESAP/PlaNet simulation model. The Energy Revolution Scenario has a target for the reduction of worldwide per capita carbon dioxide emissions to less than 1.3 tonnes per year by 2050. This is a prerequisite for stabilising global CO2 concentrations at a level below 450 ppm under a global emissions trading scheme. A second objective is the global phasing out of nuclear energy. To achieve these targets, the scenario is characterised by significant efforts to fully exploit the large potential for energy efficiency. At the same time, all cost-effective renewable energy sources are accessed for heat and electricity generation as well as the production of biofuels.

Indonesia Energy Revolution Scenario describes a development pathway which turns the present situation into a sustainable energy supply. Exploitation of the existing large energy efficiency potential will reduce primary energy demand from the current 6,900 PJ/a (2004) to 9,500 PJ/a in 2050. This compares with a demand of 16,000 PJ/a in the Reference Scenario. This significant reduction in energy demand is a crucial prerequisite for achieving a significant share of renewable energy sources, compensating for reducing the consumption of fossil fuels. The increased use of combined heat and power generation (CHP) in the industrial sector will improve the supply system’s energy conversion efficiency. Fossil fuels for CHP will be steadily replaced by biomass and geothermal energy. In other sectors the limited possibilities for district heating/cooling systems restrict the further expansion of CHP.

The electricity sector will have the strongest growth in renewable energy utilisation. By 2050, more than 60% of electricity will be produced from renewable energy sources. A capacity of 112 GW will produce 367 TWh/a of electricity. In the heat supply sector, the contribution of renewables will continue to grow, reaching more than 65% by 2050. In particular, biomass, solar collectors and geothermal energy will replace conventional systems for direct heating and cooling, with traditional biomass being replaced by more efficient modern technologies. In the transport sector biofuels are currently the only available technology which could provide a major share of renewable energy. However, the rapid development of the biofuels market over the last few years has raised questions about its sustainability. From the sustainability point of view - a major driving factor for the development of the whole Energy [R]evolution scenario - biomass use must not threaten food security or increase CO2 emissions, for example by encouraging deforestation for biofuel plantations. As long as doubts on the environmental effects and food security cannot be dispelled, the Energy [R]evolution scenario involves only a slight increase in biofuel use, and without increasing the overall biomass contribution. By 2050 over 40% of primary energy demand will be covered by renewable energy sources.

Keyword : Indonesia Energy Revolution Scenario, Reference Scenario, Alternative Scenario, MESAP/PlaNet simulation model, Renewable Energy.

 

Energy Revolution - A SustainableIndonesia Energy Outlook

Author : Bayu Indrawan, Sven Teske, Sonki Prasetya

download the indonesia energy revolution scenario

(PDF document, 4.7MB)

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